How much have matcha prices gone up?
The short answer: 15–100% at retail, 70–200%+ at wholesale, depending on grade and origin. Tencha auction (wholesale raw material): 2024 Uji auction average approximately ¥4,089/kg; 2025 Uji auction average approximately ¥10,251/kg; YoY increase +150% (some premium lots cleared at ¥14,141/kg for first-flush). The 2025 auction saw the largest single-year price increase in recorded tencha history. Retail ceremonial matcha (30g tin): 2023 retail $30–$40 for a quality ceremonial tin; early 2026 retail $50–$80 for the same product; increase +50–100% over 3 years with most of the jump concentrated in 2025. Wholesale import cost per 30g (US landed): 2023 approximately $11 per 30g at supplier level; early 2026 $19–$22 per 30g at same tier; increase +73–100%. Specific brand increases per Sazen Tea sourcing data: Marukyu Koyamaen approximately +80%; Hekisuien approximately +150%. Industry expectation: "price of new stocks to increase at least twofold."
Where do prices stand now by grade?
Current wholesale prices (Q1–Q2 2026, direct-import, USD): Ceremonial — 1kg $180–$320, 5kg $150–$280, 10kg $120–$240, 25kg+ $100–$200. Premium latte/barista — 1kg $85–$140, 5kg $75–$120, 10kg $65–$100, 25kg+ $55–$85. Culinary (high-end) — 1kg $55–$80, 5kg $45–$70, 10kg $40–$60, 25kg+ $35–$50. Red-flag thresholds (prices below these signal adulterated or mislabeled product): Ceremonial below $120/kg, Premium latte below $65/kg, Culinary below $35/kg. Current retail prices from our tracked dataset (543 blends): Entry ceremonial $0.48–$0.75/g (e.g. Marukyu Isuzu $0.71/g). Mid ceremonial $0.75–$1.20/g (e.g. Ippodo Sayaka $0.85/g, Marukyu Wako $1.10/g). Upper ceremonial $1.20–$2.00/g (e.g. Marukyu Kinrin $1.48/g). Premium ceremonial $2.00–$4.00/g (e.g. Marukyu Eiju $2.28/g). Ultra-premium $4.00–$7.50/g (e.g. Ippodo Kanza $5.20/g). Dataset average: $1.90/g across 543 blends.
Is the price spike driven by shortage, tariffs, or both?
As of June 2026: shortage only. The tariff factor was removed. The US tariff on Japanese tea imports (HTS 0902.10) was 15% in mid-2025, then removed effective November 13, 2025 under US Executive Order 2025-17507. Tea has been at 0% duty since then. Current prices remain elevated due to supply compression, not tariffs. The removal of tariffs in late 2025 should have reduced retail prices by roughly 10–12% — the lack of any visible price reduction confirms that shortage-driven cost increases exceeded the tariff savings. Retail matcha prices rose roughly 15–20% through late 2025 and early 2026, with further pass-through expected as brands work through their remaining 2024–2025 inventory at higher replacement cost.
Will matcha prices come down?
Not in 2026, likely not before 2027–2028. The pricing drivers: (1) Tencha auction prices are still at historical highs with 2026 harvest uncertain. (2) New plantings (encouraged by MAFF subsidies) won't yield for 4–5 years. (3) Retail brands priced their 2026 catalogs on 2025 wholesale costs; even if wholesale softens slightly in late 2026, retail price books won't reset until 2027. (4) Global demand continues to grow — market is USD 41.7B in 2025, projected USD 46.1B in 2026. One market mechanic that could provide partial relief: Kagoshima production expansion. Kagoshima matcha trades at 20–30% below the market average. As Kagoshima supply grows, it caps price inflation at latte and culinary tiers. Premium Uji ceremonial has no such ceiling.