The price-per-gram picture in 2026
Ceremonial matcha runs $1.50–$2.00/g for a standard 30g tin in 2026. The average across 1,937 USD-priced snapshots in our tracker is $1.90/g — pulled up by ultra-premium blends. The practical buying range is $0.85–$2.30/g for quality ceremonial with confirmed flavor scores. The shortage has pushed some mid-tier blends above $2/g, but strong options exist at every price step below that. Culinary grade ($0.12–$0.50/g) is a different product.
Ultra-premium blends are paradoxically easier to find
Here's the counterintuitive part: the most expensive tracked blends are easier to find than $2–4/g ceremonial. Gokasho Blended ($7.50/g), Chajyu no Mukashi ($6.00/g), Gokasho Organic Uji Hikari ($5.75/g), and Zuisho ($5.23/g) were all in stock on their most recent check. High prices filter demand — the shortage squeeze concentrates where $2–4/g feels accessible. If your budget genuinely reaches the ultra-premium tier, availability is better there right now.
Why prices rose so sharply
Tencha auction prices rose 265% year-over-year in 2025 — the largest single-year jump on record. The cause: 40% yield decline in top-grade Uji tencha from weather damage, compounded by a 3-to-5-year lag before new farming capacity can come online. The 15% US tariff on Japanese imports was removed November 13, 2025. Prices remain elevated. The tariff wasn't the problem.
Which merchants have the most reliable stock
Kanso Tea: 5% OOS across 206 checks. Start there if you need stock now. Cafe Kobeco follows at 6% (159 checks), then Kettl and Sazen Tea near 8%, Ujicha Matcha at 9%. Horii Shichimeien: 90% OOS across 110 checks — exceptional matcha, not a practical source. Set a restock alert.
When to expect lower prices
The 2026 first-harvest tencha was completed in May. Processing and shipping typically adds two to four months — new-crop matcha should begin reaching international retailers by August to October 2026. Most analysts expect gradual moderation in late 2026 to early 2027. The structural supply gap, built up over years of underinvestment in farming capacity, takes multiple growing seasons to close.